Theoretically, this WP examines the impact of risks/opportunities of formal PES support types on individual features (microsystem), controlling for the influence of informal support factors (exosystem).

Our specific aim is justified by Challenge 3: pressure for PES tracking support digitalization by States, after COVID-19. Although impact studies with this scope are inexistent to date, official reports show that hard to engage rural NEETs are more easily outreached using intensive human-mediated approaches (e.g. mentoring) combined with digital tools (e.g. text messaging) (European Commission 2018). Moreover, PES digital support without a trustful connection with the services is ineffective to engage rural NEETs in tracking activities (Simões & Rio 2020).

Methodologically, this WP will implement Study 3 in 4 steps: (1) Protocol development: by adopting a 360º measurement approach to capture all PES tracking processes from registration to follow-up; cover short/long-term indicators; include observable and unobservable indicators; (2) Pilot study: to refine the protocol, through small group data collection and debriefing interviews with rural NEETs; (3) Sample design: probabilistic sample and fixed-effects panel data approach in 3-time points. The sample size is defined based on NEETs’ population size and rural NEETs aged 25-29 variability in each country, according to the Eurostat Labor Force Survey (2018). With the statistical significance level set at 5% for sampling procedures, we expect to involve about 1,000 NEETs when studying the impact of each of the validated programs (3000 in total) to ensure a high population coverage and to prevent non-response limitations. The risk of sample attrition is mitigated by the fact that NEETs finding a job need to communicate with PES. Control groups will be composed of NEETs registered in PES but not participating in the validated PES programs.

In case of insufficient sample size, NEETs not registered in PES will be involved in the analysis through the use of social networks duly coordinated with local PES. (4) Impact

analysis: based on difference-in-difference and propensity score matching methodologies.

WP learning results will uphold increased capacity in evaluating the effects of employment initiatives in research institutions, namely the impact of different rural PES support types’ effectiveness, stronger transnational cooperation among researchers on rural PES deliverance, and increased use of impact studies among policymakers, by providing them tools to develop evidence-based interventions in rural PES. The outputs will come in the form of a peer-reviewed paper, a special issue and a manual of PES tracking assessment.